The impact of transnational flows and already more than investment trust management on the companies have been accepted in stock
Quarterly Journal of Securities Exchange

Quarterly Journal of Securities Exchange

The impact of transnational flows and already more than investment trust management on the companies have been accepted in stock

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 . Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Tehran West, Tehran, Iran.
2 MA of Business Administration Financial Management. Faculty of Economics and Management, Tabriz University
Abstract
The impact of Managerial Overconfidence and Inflation Uncertainty on Overinvestment in pharmaceutical, petrochemical, and automotive Companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. Introduction and Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of uncertainty of inflation and management of distraction on the over-investment of companies.METHOD / APPROACH / DATA COLLECTION: The data of 60 companies from Tehran Stock Exchange (Tehran Stock Exchange) were investigated using the sampling method for the period of 1396-1388 from automotive, petrochemical and pharmaceutical industries in the form of seasonal companies have taken. In order to measure the uncertainty of inflation, we have used the generalized regression conditional variance model (GARCH). A combination of data approach was used to test the research hypotheses.Results: The results of the hypothesis test showed that: "Inflation uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on corporate over-investment." "The lack of confidence of managers has a positive and significant effect on the over-investment of companies." "The excessive confidence of managers reduces the negative effects of uncertainty about inflation over non-equity." "During low inflation cycles of uncertainty, the management's excessive confidence in companies is likely to exacerbate (to reduce) over-investment."Discussion and Conclusion: Reducing uncertainty in inflation increases the amount of over-investment, and management's high degree of trust increases such an effect. Excessive investment in companies that is largely due to managers' immense trust and a negative relationship between uncertainty about inflation and excessive investment with respect to reliability. .
Keywords

  1. بوستانی، فرناز و فرزین رضایی، ۱۳۹۴، تأثیر خوش‌بینی مدیریت بر کارایی سرمایه‌گذاری و ارزش شرکت، اولین کنفرانس بین المللی اقتصاد کاربردی و تجارت، تهران، شرکت دانش محور ارتاخه، http://www.civilica.com/Paper-ICAEB01-ICAEB01_060.html.
  2. صالحی، اله‌کرم ؛ موسوی، روح‌اله ؛ مرادی، محمد. (1396). بررسی تأثیر خوش بینی مدیریتی بر حساسیت سرمایه‌گذاری به جریان نقدی. فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادار. مقاله 5، دوره 10، شماره 33، بهار 1396، صفحه 65-76.
  3. عرب‌صالحی، مهدی و امیری، هادی و کاظمی نوری، سپیده، 1393.بررسی تأثیر اعتماد به نفس بیش از حد مدیران ارشد بر حساسیت سرمایه گذاری جریان های نقدی، مجله پژوهش های حسابداری مالی،ش 11 ، صص413- 449.
  4. -غلامی، امیر. و کمیجانی، اکبر. 1389. رابطه بین تورم، نااطمینانی تورمی، رشد سرمایه گذاری و رشد اقتصادی در ایران. فصلنامه اقتصاد کاربردی. سال اول/ شماره سوم / زمستان 1389.
  5. -رحیمی، الهام و حری، حمیدرضا. 1394. اثرات نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و تورم بر فرصت های سرمایه گذاری شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران. مجله دانش حسابداری/ سال ششم/ ش 32 / زمستان 4231 / ص 431 تا 411.
  6. -مدرس، احمد؛ و حصارزاده رضا.1387. کیفیت گزارشگری مالی و کارایی سرمایهگذاری فصلنامه بورس اوراق - . بهادار، شماره دوم، صص116-85.
  7. عابد، محبوبه. (1392). رابطه خوش‌بینی مدیریت با کارایی سرمایه‌گذاری و تأثیر آن بر ارزش شرکت. وزارت علوم، تحقیقات و فناوری - موسسه آموزش عالی غیر دولتی غیر انتفاعی کار - دانشکده حسابداری و مدیریت سال انتشار: 1392/
  8. -نیکبخت، محمدرضا، شعبان‌زاده، مهدی و کلهر، کورش. (1395). بررسی تأثیر بیش اعتمادی مدیران بر حق الزحمه حسابرسی در شرکت‌های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران. فصلنامه مطالعات مدیریت و حسابداری.دوره 2، شماره 1، بهار.ص: 193-183.
  9. -اسماعیل زاده مقری،ع.،1383،” جستجوی ساختار مطلوب سرمایه“، مجله حسابدار ،شماره،160 صفحه 26-70.
  10. -حسنی، محمد و ذیقمی، الناز. (1394).  شواهدی تجربی از رابطه بین بیش اطمینانی و بیش سرمایه گذاری. بورس اوراق بهادار سال هشتم زمستان 1394 شماره 32.
    1. Ball, L (1992) Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty? J. Monet. Econ., 29, 371–388.
    2. Baum, C. F., Chakraborty, A., & Liu, B. (2010). The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on firms’ changes in financial leverage. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 15(1), 22–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.406.
    3. Bollerslev, T., England, R.F. & D.B Nelson (1994), " ARCH Models, in R.F. Engele and D.L Mc Fadden (eds.)",Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. IV, Elsevier Scince B.V.
    4. Duchin, R., Ozbas, O., & Sensoy, B. A. (2010). Costly external finance, corporate investment, and the subprime mortgage credit crisis. Journal of Financial Economics, 97(3), 418–435. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2009.12.008.
    5. Duellman, S., Hurwitz, H. & Sun, Y. (2015). Managerial Overconfidence and Audit Fees. Journal of Contemporary Accounting & Economics, 11(2): 148-165.
    6. Dixit, A.K. & R.S. Pindyck (1994), "Investment Under Uncertainty", Princeton University Press, Vol.97(3).
    7. Engle, R. F., 1982, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of U.K. Inflation. Econometrica, Vol. 50, No. 4 (Jul., 1982), pp. 987-1007.
    8. Fischer, G. (2013). Investment choice and inflation uncertainty. Unpublished results. Lse Research Online Documents on Economics.
    9. Fountas S., A. Ioannidis and M. Karanasos, (2004). “Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and a Common European Monetary Policy”. The Manchester School, Vol. 72, No. 2, pp. 221-242, March
    10. Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel lecture: Inflation and unemployment. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451–472. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/260579.
    11. Gomariz, M., & Ballesta, J. (2014). Financial reporting quality, debt maturity and investment efficiency. Journal of Banking & Finance, 40(1), 494–506. http:// dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.07.013.
    12. Gregoriou, A. and A. Kontonikas (2006): “Inflation Targeting and the Stationary of Inflation: New Results from an ESTAR Unit Root Test”. Bulletin of Economic Research, vol. 58, pp. 309–322.
    13. Heaton, J. B. (2002). Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial Management, 31(2), 33–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3666221.
    14. Huang, W., Jiang, F., Liu, Z., & Zhang, M. (2011). Agency cost, top executives’ overconfidence, and investment-cash flow sensitivity — evidence from listed companies in china. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 19(3), 261–277. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2010.12.001.
    15. Johnson, D. D. P., & Fowler, J. H. (2011). The evolution of overconfidence. Nature, 477(7364), 317–320. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature10384.
    16. Lin, Y., Hu, S., & Chen, M. (2005). Managerial optimism and corporate investment: Some empirical evidence from Taiwan. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 13(5), 523–546. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2004.12.003.
    17. Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. The Journal of Finance, 60(6), 2661–2700. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00813.x.
    18. Pikulina, Elena, Renneboog, Luc, Tobler, Philippe N., (2017),  Overconfidence and investment: An experimental approach, Journal of Corporate Financedoi: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.01.002
    19. Pompian, M.M. (2006) .Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management, translated by: Ahmad Badri, Kayhan Publishers.
    20. Wang, Yizhong., Chen, Carl R., Chen, Lifang., Huang, Ying Sophie. (2016). Overinvestment, inflation uncertainty, and managerial overconfidence: Firm level analysis of Chinese corporations. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 38 (2016) 54–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2016.07.001.
    21. Yang, J., and Jiang, Y. (2008). Accounting information quality, free cash flow and overinvestment: A Chinese study. The Business Review, 11 (1): 159-166.
    22. Yoon, K. H., & Ratti, R. A. (2011). Energy price uncertainty, energy intensity and firm investment. Energy Economics, 33(1), 67–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. eneco.2010.04.011.
    23. Kirchg ssner, G., and Wolters, J., (2007), "Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis", Springer-Verlag: Berling Heidelberg, pp.254.
    24. Engle,R., (1982), "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of  United Kindom Inflation", Econometrica, 50,pp. 987-1008.