تحلیل شبکه‌ای از اتصالات نامتقارن نوسانات و کاربرد آن در سبدسازی سهام
فصلنامه بورس اوراق بهادار

فصلنامه بورس اوراق بهادار

تحلیل شبکه‌ای از اتصالات نامتقارن نوسانات و کاربرد آن در سبدسازی سهام

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
دانشیار، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
مقاله حاضر با استفاده از رویکرد اتصالات مبتنی بر مدل خودرگرسیون برداری با پارامترهای متغیر در طول زمان (TVP-VAR) به بررسی پویایی‌های ریسک سیستمی و سرریز تلاطمات در 24 صنعت بورس ایران طی دوره زمانی 06/01/1390 تا 28/12/1402 می‌پردازد. همچنین عملکرد به‌کارگیری روش حداقل اتصالات را در سبدسازی سهام با دو روش متداول «حداقل همبستگی» و «حداقل واریانس» مقایسه می‌کند. نتایج برآوردها حکایت از آن دارد که اولاً میانگین شاخص اتصالات کل (TCI) طی دوره مورد بررسی حدوداً 68 درصد است که بیانگر وجود ریسک سیستمی قابل ملاحظه‌ و انکارناپذیر در بازار سهام ایران است. شواهد بیانگر افزایش بی‌سابقه ریسک سیستمی در بازار سهام طی سه سال اخیر است به طوری‌که سرریز تلاطمات بین صنایع بیش از 80 درصد بوده است. ثانیاً در میان 24 صنعت مورد مطالعه، بخش‌های «سرمایه‌گذاری»، «کانه‌های غیرفلزی»، «املاک» و «فلزات اساسی» به عنوان انتقال‌دهندگان خالص ریسک‌ها عمل می‌کنند در حالی‌که صنایع «حمل و نقل»، «زراعت»، «قند و شکر» و «محصولات کاغذی»، مهم‌ترین دریافت‌کنندگان ریسک‌ها هستند. ثالثاً سرریز تلاطمات در بین دو مجموعه از صنایع بسیار قوی است؛ نخست 4 صنعت بزرگ کامودیتی‌محور صادراتی (فرآورده نفتی، پتروشیمی، فلزات اساسی، کانه‌های فلزی) و دوم، 4 صنعت غیر کامودیتی (سرمایه‌گذاری، بانک، خودرو و املاک). رابعاً عملکرد روش حداقل اتصالات در سبدسازی سهام، بهتر از دو رویکرد استاندارد دیگر بوده است. تحلیل اتصالات بین‌بخشی در تدوین سیاست‌های محرک رشد و طراحی اقدامات پیشگیرانه برای جلوگیری از انتشار ریسک سیستمی به سیاستگذاران کمک میکند. همچنین ابزار کارآمدی برای تعدیل انتخاب سبد سهام توسط سرمایه‌گذاران در انطباق با ریسک‌های سیستمی است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

A Network Perspective Analysis of Asymmetric Volatility Connectedness and its Application in Optimum Stock Portfolio Construction

نویسنده English

Parisa Mohajeri
Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

This paper examines the dynamics of systemic risk and volatility spillover across 24 sectors in Iranian stock market over the period 03/26/2011 to 03/18/2024 using time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR). It also compares the performance of using the minimum connectedness (MCoP) approach for optimum stock portfolio construction with two trasitional methods; minimum correlation (MCP) and minimum variance (MVP). The results show that first; the average total connectedness index is approximately 68%, indicating that systemic risk in the Iranian stock market is substantial. The findings reveal an unprecedented increase in systemic risk during the last three years, so that the volatility spillover across industries has been more than 80%. Second; among these 24 sectors, “Investment”, “noMetminers”, “House” and “Base Metal” act as net transmitter of risks while “Transportation”, “agriculture”, “sugar” and “paperprod” industries are the greatest receivers of risk. Third; the volatility spillover between two sets of industries is very strong; first- 4 major export-oriented commodity sectors (Petroleum Products, Petrochemical, Base Metal and Metal Ores) and secon- 4 industries (Investment, Banks, Automobiles and House). Fourth, the performance of MCoP has been better than the other two standard methods. The interconnectedness analysis can help authorities in designing growth-driven policies and implementing preventive measures to avoid the contagion of systemic risk. Also, the performance of the systematically important sector(s) can generate useful signals to the investors, so that they can rebalance their portfolio choices accordingly against systemic risk.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Volatility Connectedness
Network Topology
Systemic Risk
Optimum Stock Portfolio Construction
Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive
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