پایداری سود و ضریب واکنش سود آتی: نقش تعدیلگر همبستگی درون صنعتی
فصلنامه بورس اوراق بهادار

فصلنامه بورس اوراق بهادار

پایداری سود و ضریب واکنش سود آتی: نقش تعدیلگر همبستگی درون صنعتی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 کارشناسی ارشد گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران
2 استادیار گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی،دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران
3 استادیار، گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران.
4 دانشجوی دکتری حسابداری، دانشکده فارابی، دانشگاه تهران ، قم، ایران
چکیده

پیش‌بینی سود آتی از دغدغه‌های اصلی سرمایه‌گذاران و تحلیلگران مالی است که تأثیر مستقیمی بر تصمیم‌گیری‌های سرمایه‌گذاری و ارزش‌گذاری بازار دارد. ضریب واکنش سود آتی نشان می‌دهد که بازده جاری سهام تا چه حد اطلاعات مربوط به سودهای آینده را منعکس می‌کند و به‌عنوان معیاری کلیدی برای سنجش کارایی بازار و شفافیت اطلاعاتی عمل می‌کند. این پژوهش به بررسی رابطه میان پایداری سود و ضریب واکنش سود آتی با تأکید بر نقش تعدیل‌گر همبستگی درون‌صنعتی می‌پردازد.
پژوهش حاضر از نوع تجربی–پس‌رویدادی بوده و با استفاده از داده‌های ترکیبی ۱۳۵ شرکت پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی دوره زمانی ۱۳۹۳ تا ۱۴۰2 انجام شده است. داده‌های مورد نیاز از صورت‌های مالی حسابرسی‌شده شرکت‌ها و پایگاه‌های اطلاعاتی کدال و ره‌آورد نوین استخراج گردیده و فرضیه‌های پژوهش با بهره‌گیری از روش رگرسیون حداقل مربعات با پارامترهای متغیر زمانی (TVP-OLS) آزمون شده‌اند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که پایداری سود تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر ضریب واکنش سود آتی دارد و همبستگی درون‌صنعتی نقش تعدیل‌گری منفی و معناداری در این رابطه ایفا می‌کند؛ به این معنا که در صنایع با همبستگی درون‌صنعتی بالاتر، اثر مثبت پایداری سود بر ضریب واکنش سود آتی تضعیف می‌شود. از منظر روش‌شناسی، این پژوهش با به‌کارگیری رویکرد پارامترهای متغیر زمانی، امکان مدل‌سازی پویایی روابط مالی در طول زمان را فراهم کرده و بینش‌های جدیدی برای پژوهش‌های آتی ارائه می‌دهد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Earnings Persistence and Future Earnings Response Coefficient: The Moderating Role of Intra-industry Connectedness

نویسندگان English

soleiman rahmani 1
Shadi Hasanzadeh 2
Zanyar Sajjadi 3
sasan hedayati 4
1 M.S of Accounting Department of Accounting , Faculty of Humanities and Social Science ,University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Accounting Department of Accounting , Faculty of Humanities and Social Science ,University of Kurdistan,Sanandaj, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.
4 Ph.D. Student, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Farabi, Tehran University, Qom, Iran.
چکیده English

Abstract
The prediction of future earnings is a primary concern for investors and financial analysts, having a direct impact on investment decisions and market valuation. The Future Earnings Response Coefficient (FERC) indicates the extent to which current stock returns reflect information about future earnings, serving as a key metric for assessing market efficiency and informational transparency. This study investigates the relationship between earnings persistence and FERC, with a specific focus on the moderating role of within-industry correlation.
This empirical archival research utilizes panel data from 135 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) over the period 2014 to 2023. Required data were extracted from audited financial statements as well as the Codal and Rahavard-e-Novin databases. The research hypotheses were tested using the Time-Varying Parameter Ordinary Least Squares (TVP-OLS) regression method. The results indicate that earnings persistence has a positive and significant effect on FERC. Furthermore, within-industry correlation plays a significant negative moderating role in this relationship; meaning that in industries with higher within-industry correlation, the positive effect of earnings persistence on FERC is attenuated. From a methodological perspective, by employing the time-varying parameter approach, this study enables the modeling of financial relationship dynamics over time and provides new insights for future research.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Earnings Persistence
Future Earnings Response Coefficient
Intra-Industry Connectedness
TVP-OLS
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